These responses are for those sitting on the fence wondering if there is value to moving to a different system. I have no illusions that anything I say will convince anyone here to change your mind. If you find the clarifications helpful, then it was worth it. I will continue to use these conclusions; it has been very helpful for me and the examiners that I work with.
I am responding to the questions below. But it can all be summed up as the following : The OSAC standards allow more ways/options to communicate the weight of the evidence that you the expert have interpreted. They are more transparent and allow for subtler differences in support *IF your agency chooses to use all the options. You can just use the 5 broad options too.
1) I wonder what the purpose is. If I knew the purpose I could judge if the purpose is being achieved. Is it to gain consistency? ID, INC, and EX are consistent verbiage but not used consistently – the parameters of the 5 proposed conclusions are not listed so do we know that these will be used more consistently?
The purpose is to better articulate the weight of the evidence and the degree of support for one proposition over the other.
"Support for same source" parameters are right in the definition. It's ANYTHING higher than inconclusive but not enough to ID. Now within THAT BROAD category of support for same source, you can parse out the weight to "limited", "moderate" "strong", if you wish, but that's not required.
An agency that has features in agreement, but insufficient to ID can say "Support for Same Source". An agency that has features in agreement (really close to an ID) could say "(Strong) Support for Same Source".
My recommendation is to include in your report a scale that shows INC<LIMITED<MODERATE<STRONG<EXTREMELY STRONG (SOURCE ID). I have a graphic that I use.
I would not expect them to be used "more consistently", given that our current conclusions vary in complex cases.
But that is a different argument than their value: which is to better capture the WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE as seen by the examiner. Two examiners may see the weight of evidence differently, but now they have more options to express that weight than a single gigantic broad inconclusive category which says nothing of the weight of the evidence.
2) These conclusions are proposed without instructions (i.e. no methodology document), how can they be used appropriately without instructions? I’ve been told that it’s up to agencies to decide how to use the conclusions. I don’t see that as being helpful or making things more consistent.
There is a methodology document. That should not prevent ASB from approving a document that contains definitions about the conclusions.
3) Without instructions, are the extra 2 conclusions dividing up inconclusive conclusions into more categories or dividing up ID’s into more categories? I’ve heard different thoughts from different people which seems to show that instructions are necessary (if the intent is to be more specific).
Inconclusive would now only mean a zero balance towards either proposition of same/different source. It means the evidence either does not support either proposition (or equally negates each other).
The support for same source or support for different source categories would replace how many agencies currently use “inconclusive with features in agreement but not enough to ID” or “inconclusive with features in disagreement but not enough to exclude”.
4) Have these 5 conclusions been tested to see if other conclusions would be valuable (should there be 6 or 7 or 8 conclusions)?
Not within fingerprints. Verbal scales such as these, to varying degrees, have been used in questioned documents for ages, footwear, trace evidence, facial, basically EVERY forensic discipline except fingerprints. Verbal scales of limited, moderate, strong, extremely strong have been used in Europe in some agencies for 30 years. They have been in use in France, Holland, England, Switzerland for fingerprints. Possibly others that I’m unaware of.
Austin Hicklin addressed this at IAI. How can we test it effectively if we don’t make a change? Or if we test it significantly up front, what validity does it have if people have no reference point not having used the conclusions before. Agencies could do internal testing before adopting it; it would not need to be significant.
5) Have these 5 conclusions been tested to see if they are more transparent? Those proposing them have said they are not using them. If these conclusions are more valuable, why aren’t they using them? I would think they would feel ethically compelled to use the best conclusions whether approved or not.
I can’t speak to why agencies have not adopted them. Perhaps they were waiting for ASB to approve them so they could move forward. Seeing that is not going to happen, I hope agencies begin adopting them without the sanction of ASB.
By definition, they are more transparent because by definition they allow the user to communicate a weight of evidence. The current conclusions do not communicate a weight of evidence.
6) Would these 5 conclusions protect against errors? How would the examiners in the Mayfield case have reported under this proposal? Wouldn’t they still have reported ‘Source ID’ meaning “Source Identification is reached when the friction ridge impressions have corresponding ridge detail and the examiner would not expect to see the same arrangement of details repeated in an impression that came from a different source.” (quoted from the OSAC document)
As you know from your research, we do not expect to see a lot of things but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist (the high erroneous exclusion rate for example).
Conclusions don’t protect against error. Citing what happened in Mayfield does not advance this argument. By this argument, because the examiners got Mayfield wrong using “identification” then should we abandon the term “Identification”? This is a straw man argument.
7) The OSAC members on the ASB have explained to the ASB that Source ID is not the same as the historic meaning of ID. Is that nuance apparent? In your use of it, are you using the new term ‘Source ID’?
Correct. There is a subtle difference in its meaning. It really comes down to a philosophical argument about what an ID is. This definition of ID is written to avoid “single source attribution” while dancing around a very complicated issue (that the ID is a posterior belief of the examiner after performing an examination and a belief that the proposed source has a ‘non-zero’ chance of being the source (i.e. he was not dead, in prison, was born, etc. at the time the latent was deposited).
8) You mentioned these conclusions are easier to use with a statistical model. Which model are you using? Does it consider things like the number of intervening ridges, creases or discrepancies? Does the model you’re using work on palm prints or foot prints? If an agency is not using a model, does that mean the 5 proposed conclusions are not as easy to use?
Swiss model (Xena). Yes, indirectly it considers “intervening ridges” but not direct ridge counts. No creases. Discrepancies are handled same way you handle them without a model (subjectively). No palms or foot prints. If an agency is not using a model it is just as easy or difficult as their current job is reaching “IDs” and “inconclusive”.
9) If ‘Support for Same Source’ ranges from limited to moderate to strong support, isn’t that 3 different situations? Why not make those different conclusions to be more transparent? And how is the difference between limited, moderate, strong, and extremely strong support determined? Where would the Mayfield comparison be placed?
Yes. It is 3 different weights of evidence. The OSAC document already gives that as an option. An examiner may express the degree of “SUPPORT FOR SAME/DIFFERENT SOURCE”. It’s already in the document. The difference is determined the same way you decide it’s an ID versus “Inconclusive with a lot of features in agreement, but not enough to call it”.
How do YOU decide any categorical decision? You evaluate the weight of evidence and determine which category best describes the evidence as YOU have interpreted it, and have supporting data to back up that decision.
I use it in class all the time and students have no problem instantly adjusting and communicating. It’s about increased communication tools.
I’ve used both systems and now testified to both. First hand experience, the OSAC scale is a more transparent, and easier way to communicate, especially marginal, more difficult latent prints.
10) What is Support for Different Sources? If I can’t find consistency, is that ‘Support for different sources? Just because I can’t find my car keys in my house doesn’t mean there is support that they aren’t there. If practitioners report out ‘support for different sources’ in this situation, it seems very misleading.
Yes it IS misleading. It is misleading because it is an error. The problem is not the conclusion, but in the examination. Just as reporting an “EXCLUSION” or “INCONCLUSIVE” would be misleading if there is an identification present to be reported… See CTS 2010 Latent 5D.
Your example is conflating two things. Your personal confidence in where to look for correspondence versus the possibility that you are missing the correspondence. If you don’t know where to look or lack complete exemplars then this would be in more of an INCONCLUSIVE situation. (or I prefer Alice White’s “Incomplete” for needing additional exemplars). But if you know where to look and have looked in those areas and have missed the correspondence and report “support for different source” then you are reporting the evidence and you interpreted it. You mis-interpreted it, but it’s as you interpreted it.
Eric and I did a podcast on these conclusions. We both had the same example of Support for Different Source: You find no corresponding features, all signs point towards an exclusion, but your agency REQUIRES, by policy, that you have a core/delta in your latent print to make an EXCLUSION decision.
[And I admit Boyd has a point. There are methods that exist to validate "conclusion scales". That would be an ideal approach. Given that the conclusions we currently use didn't go through ANY such process and given that we used them for decades BEFORE research emerged to performance test examiners.... I'm not too worried about making a lateral shift.]
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