FBI notifies of errors in DNA match statistics since 1999

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Boyd Baumgartner
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Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:03 am

FBI notifies of errors in DNA match statistics since 1999

Post by Boyd Baumgartner »

WaPo Article
“The public puts so much faith in DNA testing that it makes it especially important to make those the best estimates possible,” said Wright State University statistics professor Daniel R. Krane, an expert whose work has been cited by defense attorneys. “There is no excuse for a systematic error to many thousands of calculations in such a context.”

Krane, who identified errors 10 years ago in the DNA profiles the FBI analyzed to generate the population statistics data, called the consequences of the disclosure appalling, saying the data has been used in tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of cases worldwide in the past 15 years. He said when he flagged the problems a decade ago, the FBI downplayed his findings.

Question of the day: Considering that the only acceptable answer in the field these days is, "I for one welcome our new statistical overlords" (right click and open) and that the ANAB report for the DC Crime Lab stated that the analysts were "not competent and using inadequate procedures", what is the role and responsibility of the Analyst with regards to holding the upper echelon accountable to good science? Is it whistleblowing, publication, public challenges, relentless critique, resisting purchasing and promoting training classes for techniques that haven't been validated?
Steve Everist
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Re: FBI notifies of errors in DNA match statistics since 199

Post by Steve Everist »

Boyd Baumgartner wrote:
... and that the ANAB report for the DC Crime Lab stated that the analysts were "not competent and using inadequate procedures",...
Additionally, how will this (if at all) affect the DC Crime Lab based on this from the article you've quoted; "The audit by the DNA-lab accreditation board criticized the D.C. lab’s practices as not in compliance with FBI standards."?
Steve E.
kevin
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Re: FBI notifies of errors in DNA match statistics since 199

Post by kevin »

"I for one welcome our new statistical overlords"

this is a great point you bring up but that Simpsons reference is gold! lol!
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