Statistics and Misidentifications - The weeks Detail

[Daktari]

Your attempts to portray Shirley as the victim of male chauvanism is admirable if a little misguided. The truth is that her career was going nowhere. She was simply too much trouble. A more fruitful line of inquiry would be her realtionship with Stephen Heath. It's no secret that there was no love lost between them.
You do not address the key point of this whole line, why was she banned from entering the house? After all she was on the team, if briefly. This is almost unknown. I have heard several senior police officeers say they had never heard of a similar action.
The 'dead baby' case was investigated at the time and McKie was 'ticked off' and given 'advice'. She later claimed, on Frontline Scotland, that a memo regarding double-gloving was a result of this misadventure! Even James MacKay dismissed this.
McKie was often contemptful of her junior colleagues and when she saw a young probationer on log duty she simply took advantage of this and strode past him to have a look at the body. The story about him going to garage across the road smacks of a cover story to me.

[David Fairhurst]

Could it possibly be rigorous control of the crime scene and good practise on the part of the scene examination team that Shirley was not permitted to enter the house? She had, afterall, been to Asbury's house. Any half trained SOCO will tell you that you don't have the same people deal with suspects as deal with victims/scenes because of the risk of cross-contamination.

[H. B. James]

Interesting point, Mr. Fairhurst. In two police departments where I have worked, entry into a crime scene was limited to the primary investigators and crime scene technicians assigned to the case. Logs were kept and all who enterred the scene were required to write reports. The same is true of a number of other departments I am familiar with. I wonder if Ms McKie was the only person who lacked permission to enter the scene? Were there other officers in her police department who would have lacked permission to enter the house?

[Daktari]

She had, afterall, been to Asbury's house.

Yes quite right, but that was after she (Mckie) had been assigned to the inquiry team and specifically told not to go into the house.
McKie, or Cardwell as she then was, was taken off the Ross Case and sent to interview Asbury's mother after she had reported her son as a missing person and finding a 'suicide note' from David saying that he had done 'something terrible' and telling where she would find large sums of money. I often wonder what the 'something terrible' was and where an unemployed joiner would have got his hands on over £2,200 ($4440). Of course the fact that he admitted, after strenuously denying, that he had been in Marion's house the day before her mutilated body was found is, according to the McKie supporters, pure coincidence!

[Outsider]

I have created a web page with my whole Prosecutor’s Fallacy way of looking at the McKie case which I posted earlier on this thread. I have including the simplified Bayes Theorem calculations towards the end of the document, so it is now all in one place.

http://www.stevehornsc.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/pf.htm

What Bayes Theorem seems to be saying is clear. If you want to find old misidentifications, don’t look in places where the probability that the accused left a fingerprint is high (like the criminal depositing a fingerprint in a crime scene), look for cases where you would say that the events suggested by the police are rather unlikely if the fingerprint evidence was removed.

It might be that a fingerprint department whose methods do not represent true “individualisation” will have correctly identified hundreds or thousands of criminals from crime scenes. But if you selected a few low “prior probability” cases, you might find a mis-ID among them.

[Big Wullie]

I see an allegation of lying without a prior crime as a major departure from normal fingerprint practise and I think it should be discussed

.
Get real Steve; Shirley had been in trouble before over leaving her prints where they should not be. The so-called 'dead baby case' for example.
Read what MacKay says about that!
That's why she was banned from entering 43 Irvine Road.
Incidentally, she stated on BBC’s Frontline Scotland, that she had never been in trouble before. Maybe she was acting on her lawyers’ instructions then too.

Daktari did you say: Thats why she was banned from entering 43 Irvine Road?
Is this an admission that she was never in the house then and that the police Logs are right when they all say she never entered this House?

[Daktari]

Wullie if only people stopped doing things because they, or the things they were doing, were banned. But it is a nice thought.

PS the police logs that you refer to were the subject of a Fiscal's investigation and it was discovered that several visits to the scene were not logged, including two by Shirley!

No doubt other readers will have noticed that someone who has constantly criticised Strathclyde police for their role in this affair suddenly develops a child-like faith in their ability to keep records? Amazing!

You've obviously never read the MacKay Summary.

[Big Wullie]

Daktari

It's true what everyone is saying about your posts....... You can never answer questions being put to you.
Therefore i see no point in trying to debate any further issues with you.
Are you a Disgruntled, Sacked or even an Existing SCRO worker ?
Are you saying Shirley Mckie's print is Y7?
Exactly what is your arguement?
Please look at all the expert (Not SCRO Sacked and Disgraced Workers) witnesses that have testified and concluded it wasn't her print and end your torment by accepting this fact.
You will be on Valium soon if you keep up this mental tirade.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks this.
I see you also reply to Anonymous posters which you said you wouldn't, Please make up your Mind?

William Beck

[Daktari]

I see you also reply to Anonymous posters which you said you wouldn't, Please make up your Mind?

Wullie, you posted on Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:03 am

Daktari

Since i am not an anon Poster please answer the following:

Please make up your mind.

[Dick Dastardly]

Daktari says:

PS the police logs that you refer to were the subject of a Fiscal's investigation and it was discovered that several visits to the scene were not logged, including two by Shirley!


This is a new one for me. Can you please provide evidence of this? Or are you making this one up too?

[Daktari]

Easy, check out Frontline Scotland transcripts or the MacKay Summary. Both links have been given previously. Or search the BBC website.
By the way, what do you mean by

Or are you making this one up too?

[clpexco]

By the way, what do you mean by

Or are you making this one up too?

Daktari,

What I think DD is hinting at is the same thing requested in other posts. When you, an anonymous poster, make an accusation to a named individual, please back up your post with the link or reference. Having received additional requests to correct this situation, I am closely monitoring your posts for this. If you fail to do so, please know that I am prepared to act accordingly. Thanks,

-Kasey

[Daktari]

I was merely seeking an explanation, or an example of, where I had made something up.
I had mentioned the police logs, that Big Wullie referred to, as being the subject of a Fiscal's investigation and it was discovered that several visits to the scene were not logged, including two by Shirley!
DD had stated This is a new one for me. Can you please provide evidence of this? Or are you making this one up too?
Well here's some evidence

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/605129.stm

Presenter: Shirley's first visit was logged by the police officer on duty. Known then by her married name, Cardwell, it was noted that she and her colleague entered the porch only. Her subsequent two visits, when she collected the log, copied then returned it, were not recorded.

The Presenter was one Shelly Joffre, who is the daughter of then Member of the Scottish Parliament, Kay Ullrich. I am sure no-one will be surprised to learn that Kay Ulrich was a Scottish Nationalist Party MSP

there is more about the log keeping in the MacKay Summary available from http://www.bbc.co.uk/newssearch term "MacKay Report"

[Big Wullie]

Daktari

Sorry mate Have Carstairs allowed you out longer this weekend?
As far as i can see you have never substantiated any of your Lunatic claims and continue to spew forth a load of keke.
The whole SCRO office should have been sacked for allowing this lie to continue.
There is absolutely no evidence Shirley McKie entered the house, Please accept this as fact. Picking up logs did not entail entering the house.
You have yet to answer me on the Fiona McBride matters i asked about.
Should she have been allowed to sign other names on the forms without being charged with Fraud and Perjury, Certainly serious questions now need asking of how many other times was this Disgraced worker allowed to do this in the past.? Her excuse was she signed them because she knew they had looked at the print does not wash with me and she should be charged.

[Daktari]

I am sorry that certain explanations did not 'wash with you'.
But I don't suppose it really matters because, as Jean McFaden put it, no other group of workers had been subject to as much scrutiny and found without fault.
Legal, employment and political examinations have all cleared the SCRO officers concerned of any wrong doing but still the allegations and insinuations persist.
I think that says more about those making them than anything else.